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Aluminium alloy social inventory continues the buildup trend, focus on warrant registration next week

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Update time : 2025-09-19 14:46:18
Overall, influenced by the US Fed's interest rate cut realisation, macro sentiment was under pressure, while fundamentals saw a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: cost rigidity and pre-holiday stockpiling demand provided support, but weak demand recovery and inventory buildup risks posed constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2512 futures contract opened at RMB 20,320 per tonne overnight, hit a high of RMB 20,480 per tonne and a low of RMB 20,310 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,325 per tonne, up RMB 5 per tonne or 0.02 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 2,261 lots, and open interest was 10,294 lots, with the increase mainly from bulls.   

Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on September 18, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price to the most-traded cast aluminium alloy futures contract (AD2511) 10:15 closing price was RMB 560 per tonne.

Industry dynamics: As the National Day holiday approaches, some die-casting enterprises have released their holiday schedules. According to the SMM survey, most enterprises plan to start the holiday from October 1. Specifically, over 20 per cent of enterprises will suspend production for no more than 2 days, nearly 60 per cent for 8 days or more, and about 20 per cent for 3 to 6 days. Most enterprises are expected to resume work after October 6. Due to poor order conditions, enterprises have limited stockpiling scale for finished product inventories.

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