Analysis: Major iron ore miners' Q3 shipments up 2% on year, Vale set for strong Q4

By the end of September, Rio Tinto, Vale, Roy Hill and Anglo American Kumba had achieved around 76%, 69%, 72% and 77% of their full year export guidance for 2020, respectively, Platts estimates. Vale was still lagging its guidance despite a big jump of 30.6% on quarter and 1.9% on year in Q3.

However, the Brazilian company's exports are likely to be the highest of the year in Q4, as it reiterated in early October it would meet its 2020 guidance of 310 million-330 million mt.

Annualized export run rates to date in 2020 from BHP and FMG were 295.23 million mt and 172.88 million mt, respectively, which can be seen as ahead of guidance for BHP and on par for FMG. Both miners align with the Australian financial year that runs July-June. BHP is targeting output of 276 million-286 million mt in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2021, and FMG 175 million-180 million mt.

The cFlow data should be used as an indication only and may not capture all vessel movements and volumes.