The inventory of aluminum in the LME warehouses surged earlier last week, raising concerns about Russian metals being dumped into LME warehouses. Besides, the Biden administration is considering imposing sanctions on RUSAL in response to Russia’s escalated military attack in Ukraine.

Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, warned that the global aluminum supply chain would be impacted widely if the US imposes sanctions on RUSAL, as RUSAL is not only a major producer of primary aluminum but also a supplier that produces bauxite and alumina in global supply chains.

Wolfe Research’s metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners said flooding of RUSAL’s aluminum into the LME warehouses could lead to more complex issues, such as lower-than-fundamental LME aluminum prices.