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Brazil's slowing demand to limit pricing in 2022

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Update time : 2022-01-21 16:10:44
After strong domestic steel demand in 2021, pushing prices to all-time highs, the Brazilian steel industry is expected to experience some downward pressures in 2022 caused by economic deceleration, full inventories and falling demand from end-users.
"Steel mills benefited [in 2021] from a restocking movement on the distribution side, which is not there anymore," Daniel Sasson, equity research at Itaú BBA, told S&P Global Platts.

According to him, the expectation is for a slight drop in sales, since the comparison basis is very high after sequential increases of 4% and 19% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Moreover, sales may also be affected by an economic growth deceleration, since estimates of gross domestic product for Brazil are hovering around 0.5%, compared with a possible GDP growth in 2021 of nearly 4.5%.

According to Brazilian steel institute Aço Brasil, crude steel production in 2021 increased 14.7% compared with 2020 to 36.03 million mt with the industry operating at 73% of installed capacity. Finished steel domestic shipments totaled 21.97 million mt last year, a 15% jump on year, while apparent consumption increased 23.2% on year to 26.41 million mt.

Much of the market restocking in 2021 was supplied by imports, which totaled 4.97 million mt, an increase of 144.1% from 2020, customs data showed.

However, much of this volume is still to be absorbed by the market, according to sources.

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