As felt already through trade numbers, there will be no overnight tariff shock. Instead, the impact will emerge contract by contract as importers begin purchasing CBAM certificates linked to the weekly average EU ETS carbon price under Regulation (EU) 2023/956. For aluminium profiles under CN code 7604, the mechanism will initially cover Scope 1 (direct) emissions only, with financial settlement beginning in 2026 after the current transitional reporting phase.
The numbers circulating in industry discussions suggest price increases ranging from EUR 0.06 to EUR 0.28 per kg between 2026 and 2028, depending on origin. Are these realistic? The answer lies in three variables: extrusion emission intensity, the EU ETS price trajectory, and the penalty for default emission values.
CBAM influenced actual prices
Unlike primary aluminium, where global average emissions stand near 13-17 tCO₂ per tonne according to the International Aluminium Institute, extrusion is a downstream activity with comparatively lower direct emissions. Scope 1 emissions in extrusion stem mainly from gas-fired billet reheating furnaces, thermal ageing processes and surface treatment systems.
Industry studies and technical benchmarks typically place downstream including extruded aluminium Scope 1 emissions in the range of 0.3-0.9 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne, depending on fuel mix and plant efficiency. Facilities relying heavily on natural gas tend to sit mid-range; those using older combustion systems or higher heat demand can approach 1.2-1.5 tCO₂ per tonne in extreme cases.
