China’s steel prices in Dec expected to be supported by strong exports & low inventories
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Update time : 2024-12-03 15:22:20
China’s steel prices are likely to stay resilient in December, supported by declining inventories and strong export performance. As of November 20, rebar inventories in major spot markets stood at 2.67 million tons, marking a 10.3% rise from the end of October but a 9.5% decrease compared to the same period last year and a significant 29.6% drop from 2021 levels, which coincided with the peak of China’s real estate boom.
Construction activity in northern China is expected to slow further in December, which may lead to a continued buildup of rebar inventories toward the end of 2024. However, lower production levels and weaker demand for construction steel are expected to keep inventories at historically low levels.
While China’s steel exports could see a gradual decline from their October peak, weak domestic demand keeps Chinese steel prices competitive in global markets. This competitiveness is likely to sustain steel exports at historically high levels in the coming months. Additionally, exports of finished steel products are expected to remain strong through the first half of 2025, providing continued support to the domestic market. As a result, steel prices in December are anticipated to hover near current levels.
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