Commodities 2022: 'Aggressive normalization' seen for US HRC prices after 2021 peak

US HRC spot prices entered 2021 rallying, already near an all-time high at $1,009/st, according to Platts pricing data. The price cracked the "grand a band" threshold in the final week of 2020 and surged an additional 94% to an all-time high of $1,960/st in late September.

Price erosion began in the third quarter, though domestic HRC spot prices remained supported above $1,900/st through mid-October before falling 24% from the peak in the final months of 2021.

 "The US steel market is now in surplus, unlike having been in a deficit over the past year and a half, and that surplus most likely grows larger next year," UBS analyst Andreas Bokkenheuser said in a recent interview with Platts.