Investing.com -- The European steel industry is positioned for a significant 2026 rebound after bottoming in 2025, with benchmark hot rolled coil (HRC) prices forecast to reach $750/t, up more than $100/t from third quarter lows of $650/t, according to analysts at Jefferies in a note dated Tuesday.
The brokerage projects diversified steel giant ArcelorMittal will achieve €8.3 billion EBITDA in 2026 versus €8.2 billion consensus, Swedish specialty steelmaker SSAB SEK13.2 billion versus SEK13.1 billion consensus, and Austrian steel and technology group Voestalpine €1.7 billion versus €1.72 billion consensus.
This follows 2025 trough levels of €6.6 billion, SEK10.2 billion, and €1.5 billion respectively for the three producers.
The recovery hinges on the European Commission’s October 7 proposal to slash steel import quotas by 50% to 18.3mT and double tariffs on non-quota volumes to 50% from 25%, effective July 2026.
This should reduce import penetration from 25% back toward 15% and boost domestic production by 10mT, driving industry operating rates up more than 10% from current 65-67% toward targeted 80-85% levels.
ArcelorMittal cited potential reductions of 8mT in flat steel imports and 2mT in long steel imports.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) beginning January 2026 will add €40–70/t to import prices, while Germany’s €500 billion infrastructure program should boost demand 1-2% annually from 2027.
Every €50/t price increase would boost 2026 EBITDA by 20% for ArcelorMittal, 13% for SSAB, 15% for Voestalpine, 57% for German producer Salzgitter, and 24% for industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp.
