Primary aluminium production moved from 72.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 73.9 million tonnes in 2025, with a forecast of 75.3 million tonnes in 2026. On paper, that looks like growth. In reality, it is constrained growth. China is approaching its 45 million tonne capacity cap (whereas some speculate the primary production has exceeded 45 million tonnes in 2025 already), limiting further domestic expansion. Energy competition is intensifying, with over 800,000 tonnes of smelting capacity offline in Europe since the aftermath of the 2022 geopolitical and power crisis.
Meanwhile, according to AL Circle research, global aluminium markets are projected to remain in deficit in 2026, with a shortfall estimated between 180,000 and 510,000 tonnes, wherein the possibility of Mozambique closure plays a humongous role.
This is the environment in which recycled aluminium demand is projected to grow by 3.87 per cent. Not only because scrap is sustainable, but also because primary aluminium cannot carry the load alone.
