The metal bulls are charging. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which sees a commodities rally ahead on a par with the 2000, says copper could test its record high of just over $10,000 by 2022. The metal has already surged to almost $8,000 this year. Nickel is also on a tear, zinc has climbed more than 50% since March, and iron ore is closing in on $150 a ton.
The post-Covid future does look rosy. Only, we’re not there yet.
Exuberance is only natural, to some extent. The vast majority of us will be glad to see the end of a year spent in varying stages of lockdown. We are all focusing ahead. In commodities terms, that translates into looking through the next few months of winter Covid-19 surges, extra closures, vaccine distribution delays and other hiccups, into a world where life returns to normal.
The optimism is also grounded in reality. There is no question that things are looking up for commodities, and particularly base metals. There is significant government spending globally, the U.S. dollar is weak and monetary policy is loose. Industrial and consumer demand will recover. Supply, meanwhile, will probably struggle to keep up with something close to a V-shaped recovery, after a long period of frugality following the splurge of 2012 and 2013.
