Deutsche Bank expects iron ore prices to remain supported through the March quarter, according to a commodities outlook note. The bank cites seasonal restocking demand from Chinese steel mills and weaker global exports as primary drivers. Chinese policy measures will be a key focus heading into March for both steel and iron ore markets. Any announced measures aimed at supporting growth through infrastructure investments or property measures could potentially bolster market sentiment.
Looking further ahead, Deutsche Bank forecasts a balanced market for 2026, with a bias towards surplus in the second half of the year. Iron ore port inventories climbed through most of 2025 and currently sit at the highest level since 2022. This is happening while Chinese domestic steel demand continues to contract due to ongoing property market weakness.
Potential steel production regulation in China remains a persistent theme, although similar expectations last year did not prevent Chinese exports from reaching record levels in 2025. Deutsche Bank’s central assumption is that there will only be a modest reduction in steel exports in 2026.
Deutsche Bank forecasts average iron ore prices of $US106 a tonne in the first quarter of 2024 and $US102 a tonne for the full year of 2026. Deutsche Bank is a global investment bank that provides financial services, including investment banking, sales and trading, and asset and wealth management. It has a significant presence in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.
