Iron Ore Weakens as Australia Flags Return to Sub-$100 Prices

Iron ore headed for a weekly loss as Australia’s government forecast sharply lower prices, the US dollar hit a two-year high, and traders waited for China’s next move to support its economy.

Futures dropped for a fourth day in Singapore, to trade about 3% lower for the week. The contract has been hovering around $100 a ton for more than a month.

With China’s economy slowing and global mine output rising, iron ore will average $80 a ton in 2025, and then drop to $76 in 2026, Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a quarterly outlook. The nation is the world’s largest iron ore shipper. 

Commodities including have been burdened this week as the US currency strengthened, with the Federal Reserve indicating fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected in 2025. The greenback’s advance makes raw materials more expensive for most buyers, including in China.

Iron ore has shed more than a quarter of its value this year, making it one of the worst-performing major raw materials, as China’s policymakers struggled to address a property crisis that’s eroded steel demand. The outlook from Australia for weaker prices raises the prospect of further losses next year, and tallies with downbeat outlooks from banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

China’s property sector remains a key cause of the nation’s weak steel demand, according to the Australian report, which lists forecasts for free—on-board prices. “The sector has shown little indication of stabilizing in the final months of 2024.”

Iron ore futures traded 1.2% lower at $100.60 a ton by 10:34 a.m. London time. In other markets, copper halted its slide on the London Metal Exchange, after settling at four-month low in the previous session. 

Metals were mostly higher on Friday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for fresh clues about its policy outlook. Nickel also steadied on the LME, after closing at a four-year low.