The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,500-25,100. LME aluminium closed at USD3,388, still above a bullishly aligned moving-average system (MA5: 3,344.4 > MA10: 3,247.5), but the closing price was already slightly below MA5, indicating that the short-term upward momentum met resistance. Its MACD indicator was also in a strong zone above the zero axis, but attention should be paid to whether the DIF line can obtain effective support above the DEA line. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,350-3,420.
Macro front: US President Trump said the US war with Iran could end soon. Trump said the war was basically over, almost. (Bearish★) With Chinese New Year holiday factors combined with a recovery in consumption demand, China’s February CPI rose 1.3 per cent Y-o-Y, the highest in nearly three years, while core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.8 per cent Y-o-Y. Driven by factors including rising international commodity prices, rapid demand growth in some domestic industries, and the continued effectiveness of macro policies, the national PPI fell 0.9 per cent Y-o-Y, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months. (Bullish★)
Fundamentals: Supply side, newly commissioned aluminium projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola continued to ramp up production, but escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may have already affected production or shipments at some aluminium smelters, and daily average production is expected to decrease. Demand side, after the holiday, as downstream players gradually resumed work, demand recovered, and the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded significantly; the weekly proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded by about 8 percentage points w-o-w.
