I sometimes think of Steel Market Update (SMU) as an early warning system for big market moves, and our most recent survey data clearly points to a market inflection.
For starters, nearly half of respondents to our latest survey think lead times will be contracting two months from now. Figure 1 illustrates that shift in thinking.
There are some seasonal reasons for that—namely, the summer doldrums. Still, a shift in lead times often is a precursor to price moves.
Also, more than 80% of survey respondents think that hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have already peaked or will before Memorial Day (see Figure 2).
Finally, only 9% of respondents think HRC prices at or above $1,250/ton ($62.50/cwt) are in the cards (see Figure 3).
