The main theme of domestic favourable macro front remains unchanged, SHFE aluminium prices showed a ‘v-shaped’ rebound today

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2504 contract opened at RMB 20,905 per tonne, with a high of RMB 20,925 per tonne, a low of RMB 20,615 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,845 per tonne, down 0.12 per cent. Trading volume was 17 lots, and open interest was 172,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro side, endless tariff disputes have raised concerns about a potential US economic recession. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Traders have fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June.

Fundamentals side, domestic aluminium production resumption is progressing, with capacity expected to be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminium ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminium ingot destocking clearer. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, the operating rates of aluminium processing enterprises continued to rebound, strengthening support for aluminium consumption.

Overall, the macro side remains mixed, with domestic macro favourable factors unchanged, while overseas trade barriers are increasing but remain highly uncertain. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand are increasing. During the peak consumption season, most sectors saw a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Combined with the destocking of aluminium ingot social inventory, aluminium prices are supported to some extent. In the short term, aluminium prices are expected to hover at highs, with attention on the key resistance level of RMB 21,000 per tonne.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 3,195 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,215 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,173 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,190 per tonne, down 0.93 per cent. Trading volume was 110,000 lots, and open interest was 197,000 lots.