This is Part 4 of 5 in the S&P Global Platts Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in metallurgical coal, iron ore, steel, scrap and alumina. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts, to new arbitrages, and to quality spread fluctuations.
After a particularly volatile third-quarter, the alumina market may see less dramatic price swings in the final quarter of this year, a number of market participants have said.
The erratic swings of Q3 were due to a combination of events in the physical and futures markets, as well as the cascading impact from the volatility in the wider financial markets as the COVID-19 pandemic sank the global economy deeper into recession.
An unplanned two-month curtailment at the Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil in August and September created severe supply concerns across the globe, propelling prices higher.
It is the world's largest alumina refinery, and typically exports sizable volumes to Norway, Iceland and Canada. It is also the sole alumina supplier of the 450,000 mt/year Albras primary aluminum smelter in Brazil.
The plant's associated bauxite mine needed emergency repairs to its pipeline, during which the mine was idled and the refinery's output slashed to around 40% of its 6.3 million mt/year capacity, from 90%.
According to S&P Global Platts estimates, Alunorte lost about 283,500 mt/month of alumina output when the curtailment began on Aug. 18.
