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US and Mexico temporarily suspend sanctions against China, multiple positive factors support short-term strength in aluminium prices

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Update time : 2025-11-12 15:29:19
Futures: From a technical perspective, the SHFE aluminium 2601 contract rose slightly by 0.28 per cent to RMB 21,750 per tonne during the night session on November 11, showing an overall pattern of fluctuating upward within a narrow range. The moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA30, MA60) were densely distributed in the range of 21,731-21,737, with the price slightly above the moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish bias but limited momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIF (1.8998) was higher than the DEA (1.0469), and the histogram was positive (1.7058), showing mild upward momentum but insufficient strength. The trading volume was 77,905 lots, accompanied by an increase in open interest of 8,954 lots, reflecting a slight inflow of funds. Referencing the night session's low of 21,635 and high of 21,780, short-term support is expected at 21,700-21,730 (the MA dense area and previous low), while resistance is seen at 21,780-21,800 (previous high and psychological resistance). The overall market is in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, and the direction of the breakout needs to be watched.

Macro front: The U.S. announced the suspension of the export control rule of penetration from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Ministry of Commerce responded, stating that this is an important measure by the U.S. to implement the consensus from the China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations. Arrangements after the one-year suspension will continue to be discussed. (Bullish ★) According to foreign media reports, Mexico's plan to impose tariffs on China has been postponed again and is scheduled for deliberation in Congress as early as December. Against the backdrop of certain countries arbitrarily imposing tariffs, China and Mexico should strengthen communication and coordination to jointly uphold free trade and multilateralism. (Bullish ★) Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao pointed out that more detailed measures will be introduced in areas such as vigorously boosting consumption, steadily expanding institutional opening-up, actively expanding autonomous opening-up, promoting innovative development of trade, expanding two-way investment cooperation, and high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road," along with high-quality compilation of a series of special plans for the commerce sector. (Bullish ★)

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