Additionally, some group enterprises, due to poor overall annual performance, implemented marginal production cut adjustments in November, showing signs of supply contraction during the off-season. However, due to the stronger-than-expected performance of aluminium billet processing fees, particularly in south China, some billet plants in south-west China increased production accordingly. Coupled with some newly commissioned capacities entering the ramp-up phase in Q4, domestic aluminium billet supply achieved a temporary stable transition amid mixed trends.
The daily average production of primary aluminium billets in November pulled back slightly to around 50,000 tonnes per day m-o-m, in line with previous expectations. However, SMM expects that as the off-season deepens in December and high aluminium prices further suppress processing fees and downstream demand, enterprise inventory and capital pressures will intensify. Some enterprises already have plans for sizable production cuts, and daily average production is expected to continue pulling back to 48,000 tonnes per day.
First, looking at the final statistics for aluminium billet supply in November. According to the SMM monthly survey, the current sample for the monthly primary aluminium billet survey includes 175 enterprises, an increase of 2 from the previous month, with a total capacity of 32.2 million tonnes, an increase of nearly 300,000 tonnes m-o-m. National primary aluminium billet production in November 2025 (30 days) totalled 1.507 million tonne, down 56,000 tonne m-o-m from October 2025 (31 days), a decrease of 3.6per cent, but up 30,000 tonne y-o-y, an increase of 2.0per cent. The domestic operating rate for primary aluminium billets in November was 56.6per cent, down 2.2per cent m-o-m and down 0.2per cent y-o-y. By region, except for Henan, where production rebounded against the trend after the end of environmental protection-related controls, production in other provinces declined to varying degrees, but the overall performance remained in line with off-season expectations.
