The coming flood season in Yunnan is likely to increase the power supply, and the resumption pace of primary aluminum production will be a key factor affecting future aluminum prices.

The total capacity of 11 primary aluminum enterprises in Yunnan is 5.6 million tons. Due to the tight power supply and drought this year, the region’s primary aluminum suppliers have cut their production several times, with a total decrease of 2 million tons, and this production capacity hasn’t been restarted yet.

If the hydropower improves in June and July, primary aluminum enterprises in Yunnan will resume production according to the situation, with a possible slower resumption cycle, which might be 1.09 million tons per month. With an operating capacity of 4.35 million tons, a two-month continuous power supply will be needed to reach operating highs in August last year.