Australian supply risks keeping iron ore prices elevated

2021 was a historic year for iron ore, with the price reaching over $230 /dmt and achieving a $160 /dmt annual average. This elevated price, however, did not last long and in 2021 H1, we saw one of the sharpest price falls ever seen in the iron ore industry. China saw a decrease in consumption from 2021 Q3 which has continued up to now. Supply has been better than in the past few years, with high levels of shipments from most of Australia and recovering production from Vale. This high availability of iron ore has also been reinforced by built-up port stocks in China, consistently holding over 150 Mt for months and even exceeding 160 Mt at end-February.