China's steel exports forecasted to maintain high level in H2
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Update time : 2024-07-22 15:43:45
In the first half of 2024, China produced nearly 531 million tons of crude steel, and the apparent consumption of crude steel marked a 4.2% year-on-year decline. The real estate sector continued to significantly depress domestic steel demand, with a 25% drop in steel demand for real estate compared to the previous year. Overall, real estate-related steel demand is projected to reduce annual demand by 18%.
Due to weak domestic demand and relatively high supply, China has turned to steel exports to alleviate domestic supply pressure. Consequently, steel exports are expected to remain robust in the second half of the year. China, the world's largest steel exporter, accounted for 26% of global steel trade in 2023.
Demand from Belt and Road Initiative countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, continues to support China's steel exports. Southeast Asia, accounting for 30% of China's steel exports, has shown strong economic growth and steel demand. The IMF forecasts a 2.7% global economic growth rate in 2024, with ASEAN countries exceeding this with a 4.47% growth rate, further driving steel demand.
However, the first half of the year saw 47 anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese steel products, primarily from Europe and America. Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have also started to scrutinize China's steel exports.
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