How a steel pipeline under the Baltic Sea affects geopolitical discourse

A slender filament of metal, not even visible beneath the choppy waters of the Baltic, is dividing the Atlantic. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken has warned companies building the Russia-Germany Nord Stream II gas pipeline to “immediately abandon work” or face sanctions. But this is the wrong battle at the wrong time.

The pipeline itself is both problematic and not. It is not a real threat to European energy security. Although the continent’s own gas production is declining, its energy system is far more diverse and interconnected than during the Russian gas disruptions of 2006 or 2009. Gazprom cannot selectively pick off single European countries because of the development of reversible pipelines, including the ability to flow gas eastwards into Ukraine.

The rise of renewable energy and the construction of several new receiving terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) give Europe more options. Its decarbonisation agenda is a clear threat to the long-term future of Russian gas exports. If anything, Brussels now holds Moscow economic hostage, rather than vice versa.
 

However, Nord Stream II, along with the existing Nord Stream I and Turkish Stream pipeline, which started deliveries in January last year, do remove most of the requirement for Russian gas transit through Ukraine. That deprives Kiev of some $2-3 billion per year of fees once its current agreement runs out after 2024, an important part of government budget revenues of less than $39bn this year. More importantly, it could free President Vladimir Putin’s hand for further military adventurism against Ukraine.

Washington’s solicitude for European energy security was the ostensible reason for the US Senate to impose sanctions on Nord Stream II in December 2019. France and some Eastern European countries, notably Poland and the three Baltic states, are also concerned, even if the nuclear-friendly Élysée is mostly using the project as a bargaining chip with Berlin over other issues.

The pipeline is about 95 per cent complete, but would have been ready by the middle of last year had it not been delayed – first by Danish concerns over its route, then by the US sanctions that prevented pipeline vessels from continuing work. The latest measures have driven out insurance, certification and engineering firms.