It is always a challenge reading markets, whether you look at fundamentals of supply, demand and macroeconomic developments or whether you are a chartist looking at price trends to see how they compare to previous models, assessing price movement relative to Fibonacci levels and indications from high/low daily pricing data.
One issue we repeatedly see is an overreliance on one metric. The media love a headline and will make a prediction based on just one data point. Stock levels fall - prices must rise, or imports rise – so demand must be strong.
If only life were quite so simple.
