There is a common agreement that uncertainty in the global economy is hindering the recovery process in the post-pandemic scenario, and the downside risk of virus return is adding fuel to the premise that economic growth is likely to be slower than what was envisaged in June. However, it must be kept in mind that the concern on the annual estimates, made only a month earlier, ought not to be changed merely on the basis of one month’s experience. For making estimates for October, the revision could have been made in September. Empirically, we have seen that when the shutters are half open, there is a normal penchant to suppress the positiveness of the outlook and, rather, to forecast the depression at a higher level. The current stiff challenges faced by the producers in marketing their products make our faith shaken in resilience and tend to perpetuate the subdued outlook.
Thus, it is a little surprising that WSA thought it (July) an appropriate time to come out with a revision of steel demand estimates made in June. A month ago, in the short-range outlook for steel, the WSA had estimated the global consumption of finished steel at 1.654 million tonne in 2020, 6.4% lower than that a year ago. One month later, the global steel market has been assumed it to be better off with steel consumption at 1.660 billion tonne, with growth down by 6.0% only.
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