Steel industry recovery increasingly driven by ex-China growth

BloombergNEF has revised its near-term (2020-22) steel demand and production forecasts to reflect the most recently available industry statistics.

We estimate that global steel demand remained flat in 2020, as the slowdown in other regions was offset by robust 7% year-on-year (y/y) growth in China. The country’s demand growth will slow to 1% in 2021, as central regulators seek to dampen the red-hot steel market and stimulus spending post-pandemic slows down. Despite China slowing, we project global steel demand will recover 4% y/y in 2021. Most of the growth this year will come in the second half, as postpandemic stimulus spending spurs industrial and construction activity in Europe, the U.S., India, and other parts of APAC.