Steel mills feel confident with early 2023 economic rally

The wave of domestic mill price increase announcements that began shortly after Thanksgiving has continued well into the first quarter.

Mills were seeking at least $900/ton ($45/cwt) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) when this article was filed in mid-February. If they achieved that, it would mean prices were up nearly $300/ton from a 2022 low of $615/ton recorded in November. The latest gains came after mills announced a combined $100/ton in price increases in less than two weeks in early/mid-February alone.

In fact, we had trouble squeezing the raft of late increases in late Q4 2022 and early Q1 2023 into Figure 1. As you can see, more service centers continue to raise prices in tandem with mills. In other words, despite some macro concerns, such as inflation, higher interest rates, recession fears, or the debt ceiling debate, manufacturing companies are seeing a stronger-than-expected start to 2023.