Vale mulls iron-ore increase that would trail some estimates

Management of the world’s No. 2 producer plans to seek board approval Thursday for guidance of between 330-million and 350-million metric tons for 2022, said people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. Vale declined to comment.

That would be higher than this year’s production, which the company said last month will likely to be in the lower half of a range of 315-million to 335-million tons. But the midpoint of the 2022 guidance under consideration, if confirmed, would trail the 345-million-ton average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The Brazilian company will present 2022 projections for production, capital expenditure and other financial indicators at its annual investor day in New York on November 29.

Vale’s battle to recover from its Brazilian tailings dam disaster makes it a major swing factor on the supply side. With the mid point of the proposed 2022 guidance coming in slightly below the average analyst estimate, the company’s outlook may offer support to a nascent recovery in iron-ore prices.