It seems all the swans are black now. First a pandemic. Now war. You don’t need a reminder from Steel Market Update (SMU) on the terrible human suffering caused by each.
I said during a presentation at the Tampa Steel Conference in mid-February that the word unprecedented was getting overused. I was wrong, unfortunately. The manufacturing industry might be past the worst of COVID, but the fallout from the war in Ukraine might have the potential to shock the market just as much as the pandemic.
What is the impact on steel prices? Looking back at what we wrote not too long ago—which feels like it was written in another galaxy now—prices were falling fast, but it was risky to put anything in writing for fear it would be out of date by the time the article ran.
The same is true now—except replace falling prices with rising ones. First it was on the raw materials side, and now on steel as well.
Don’t take my word for it. Just ask a European or Turkish steelmaker or automaker what they’re seeing right now: shortages and idlings because power costs are too high or because basic material is in short supply. In other words, availability is becoming the primary concern and pricing a secondary one in Europe and Turkey.
