German steel pricing outlook bullish despite lower production expectations: Platts survey

The survey, which is used to compile an index demonstrating pricing sentiment, was conducted at the beginning of this month and showed the overall expectation for steel prices at 59, up 34 points from October, with all participants largely in consensus over the bullish direction.

"It won't be the higher prices we had in the last 12 months, but they will be firm," a German distributor told Platts. "Stockholders and end-buyers have been trying to point out some negative trends, but the mills are very strong. You also have the US market opening to a certain extent and protectionism against imports."

The US and EU decision to replace the US Section 232 tariffs on European steel and aluminum imports with a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) effective Jan. 1 sparked a wave of bullish sentiment. Market sources had been waiting on the outcome of EU-US discussions since the summer, with many buy-side sources fearing higher domestic prices if mills decide to send material overseas.

"Lead times are shorter, and from the Section 232 announcement for European steel into the US, a lot of material will disappear," a second German distributor warned.